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Why do fortune tellers make accurate predictions? Unraveling the Barnum Effect

Updated 24 Sep 20261,276 views
Article cover: Why do fortune tellers make accurate predictions? Unraveling the Barnum Effect

The academic origin of the Barnum Effect

This phenomenon is also called the Forer Effect, after psychologist Bertram Forer, who ran a 1948 experiment giving every participant the identical vague personality description after a "personalized" test. Most participants rated it as highly accurate for themselves personally, even though the wording was broad enough to apply to almost anyone.

“...You find it difficult to reveal your true self to others. Makes you keep something hidden Some desires in your life are things that seem unlikely..." This sentence is expected to match the personality of many people. That's because of the psychology behind it.

Have you ever noticed why (some) fortune tellers can accurately tell our personality traits or past events? Fortune telling, predicting the future is something that we cannot verify until it actually happens. As for the fortune teller's prediction of past personality characteristics Psychology is often used as an aid in making predictions.

man using magnifying glass
man using magnifying glass

Fortune teller and fortune teller are popular phrases in the mouth of Thai people that have been associated with fortune telling for a long time. If it's a good story, it must be said that it's accurate. If it's not a problem, you have to be careful. But everything depends on us. We must live in the present that we set for ourselves.

Today's article Prof I would like to explain the phenomenon of fortune telling according to the principles of psychology. Fortune telling is a personal belief with no intention of disrespecting any teachers. It is just an explanation of the phenomenon using the principles of psychology as follows.

Describing personality with art and being more than half accurate: Barnum Effect

from many studies. This led to the discovery of criteria that would make the listener feel that the fortune teller's prediction was correct. It has the following characteristics:

  1. The listener must believe that the prediction is a prediction made specifically for us only.
  2. The listener must have faith in the seer. The more the listener believes in the seer, the more The more you will feel accepted by the prediction.
  3. Predict what is the basic psychological need of a person (basic psychological need) Not specifying personality traits directly, clearly, but will be a broad sentence. Not going into details like
    “...you're not sure if something you've done is right or wrong..." which almost everyone has felt this way, of course. Because the prediction does not clearly indicate what this "something" is, the listener will use it to think in accordance with their own life experiences.
  4. Predict in a positive way.Or at least not so negative that it sounds like an insult. “...You are an attention seeker. Want others to pay attention But you often associate with shallow people. Makes many of your friends feel like you are an insincere person..." something like this. Because even though every sentence may be correct, No one would want to admit that it was true.
Photo by Aditya Saxena on Unsplash

What is the Barnum Effect?

Barnum Effect (also known as the Forer effect) is a phenomenon named after Phineas Taylor Barnum, an actor and circus owner. Barnum once noted that there are certain sentences or words that can be used by everyone. Or, in common language, it “clicks” with everyone. Make the listener feel that It really resonates with us. The Barnum Effect will be explained in the case where a fortune teller predicts something that seems to be a habit. Or our feelings and thoughts are correct even though we have never known each other before.

In 1948, Bertram R. Forer, an American psychologist In an experiment with 39 college students (which some have called the Forer effect instead of the Barnum effect), the students were placed in a room and then told the students that they would use their knowledge and abilities to analyze each person's personality traits. They write it on a piece of paper and hand it to each person to read. And when students read the analysis (prediction) of their own personality The accuracy of the prediction must be rated. It can give a score between 0-5, where 0 score means very bad, completely random, not accurate at all, while 5 points means very accurate.

The results of the experiment found that Forer received an average total score of 4.26 points, with more than 40% of students giving a full score of 5 points. But when everyone exchanged analysis sheets and read them, they were stunned because every sheet had the same writing!

ExampleThe prediction of Forer

“...You want people to admire you, but many times you blame yourself for something you've done. You are a person with great potential but it just hasn't been fully exploited. You may appear strong and in control on the outside. But you still have anxiety and uncertainty inside. There are times when you feel confused about whether what you have done is right or not…”

“...You find it difficult to reveal your true self to others. Makes you keep something hidden Some of your desires in life are implausible..."

“...One of your important goals in life is to feel secure in life..."

Sentences like this often predict what is called Basic needs of the human mind Also known as basic psychological need, in the theory of humanistic psychology, it is believed that all people have desires. Something basic It's something that everyone wants. And it is universal, that is, the same in all races, genders, all cultures.

Summary

These desires include: desire to be loved (Want to be loved by others) A feeling of security, peace, independence. and feelings of self-worth, etc., making predictions about these things Most people will feel that it is straight.

Illustration from the internet
Source: Dr. Khlong Luang

Sources

Information updated 24 September 2026.